Is Crude Oil Set to Challenge the 70 USD Price Area?
CL CRUDE OIL DAILY TIME FRAME APRIL 17TH 2025
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The daily time frame is now showing a bullish classic ascending triangle set up.
Is this bullish formation ready to break out? How likely is this possible breakthrough?
First, let’s look at the last 6 days’ daily volume. What I see is the potent April 9th huge BT bullish daily bar with no volume enough to agree with the huge 7 USD daily range. We normally expect a stronger volume reversal green bar to claim a bottom igniting a potent reversal bounce into the recently broken 70 USD support level. At the same time, we didn’t see a daily continuation yet.
However, we do observe the last 6 days ascending triangle formation, which is certainly a bullish technical event, where we also see a decreasing daily consolidation volume, which is certainly bullish.
At the same time, we observe a heavy supply coming from the 450/200 EMA areas, which must be overcome by the buyers eventually coming from the referred ascending triangle technical formation. We certainly think CL needs a buying blast, which means more volume to sustain a real bounce into the 70 USD area.
Analyzing fundamentals, the global crude oil consumption forecast is clearly deteriorating as tariffs and the corresponding trade war deepens, which is now the hardest obstacle to increasing the buying volume.
If the referred bullish triangle fails, CL will face the obvious bearish consequences, increasing the odds to challenge the 55-50 USD demand area again, as shown on the corresponding CL daily chart. Note that the 50 USD area corresponds with the January 2022 CL price, which is the pre-Ukraine war crude oil price.
In short, the global demand uncertainty is the crude oil driver as the global trade scenario is still very undefined.
Finally, between the referred 50 USD price level, CL shows a technically fluid daily structure until the 42 USD price area, which fuels the bearish cause to eventually challenge the 40 USD crude oil price area.
Stay tuned.